2  Sởi năm 2019

2.1 Phân tích hệ số lây nhiễm Rt

  • Theo dữ liệu thì dịch Sởi năm 2019, số ca bắt đầu tăng liên tục từ tháng 09/2018, do đó Rt sẽ được ước tính từ tháng 09/2018 đến tháng 03/2020.

  • Số ca bắt đầu tăng liên tục từ tháng 09/2018, kéo dài đến những tháng đầu năm 2020. Vào tháng 02/2019 thì số ca được ghi nhận cao nhất (khoảng 80 ca), và sau đó số ca bắt đầu giảm đến tháng 07/2019 thì số ca có xu hướng đi ngang kéo dài đến đầu năm 2020.

  • Về nhóm tuổi, đầu dịch thì nhóm tuổi < 18 tháng chiếm khá cao, tuy nhiên sau 3 tháng (đến tháng 12/2018) thì nhóm từ 5 - 10 tuổi và trên 10 tuổi xuất hiện nhiều hơn, đặc biệt là vào thời gian số ca bệnh ghi nhận cao nhất (khoảng tháng 01 - 02/2019).

Dates Estimatr Rt Q1 Q3 Propability
2020-03-31 0.3593996 0.1643404 0.6294760 0.0000733
2020-03-30 0.3901522 0.1870931 0.6665674 0.0001457
2020-03-29 0.4612047 0.2383112 0.7564540 0.0007736
2020-03-28 0.4947037 0.2634089 0.7976749 0.0015372
2020-03-27 0.4903709 0.2611019 0.7906886 0.0013462
2020-03-26 0.5220684 0.2854196 0.8289848 0.0024740
2020-03-25 0.5867917 0.3354021 0.9073346 0.0077752
2020-03-24 0.5737019 0.3279202 0.8870945 0.0057326
2020-03-23 0.5579000 0.3188881 0.8626605 0.0038581
2020-03-22 0.6749907 0.4123018 1.0013775 0.0254143
2020-03-21 0.6829165 0.4227361 1.0044849 0.0263973
2020-03-20 0.7174481 0.4548005 1.0389979 0.0397793
2020-03-19 0.6853286 0.4344396 0.9924829 0.0226927
2020-03-18 0.7662085 0.5049362 1.0810925 0.0654327
2020-03-17 0.8098441 0.5463984 1.1243022 0.1043595
2020-03-16 0.7451037 0.4990076 1.0397484 0.0421282
2020-03-15 0.6122911 0.3962425 0.8745990 0.0031232
2020-03-14 0.5845273 0.3782752 0.8349411 0.0012993
2020-03-13 0.6031878 0.3975045 0.8510761 0.0016984
2020-03-12 0.5551291 0.3626287 0.7879616 0.0003512
2020-03-11 0.5305236 0.3465556 0.7530361 0.0001191
2020-03-10 0.5849803 0.3946838 0.8121250 0.0005147
2020-03-09 0.5590715 0.3772032 0.7761559 0.0001695
2020-03-08 0.4809995 0.3169817 0.6786729 0.0000057
2020-03-07 0.4770276 0.3169814 0.6692626 0.0000030
2020-03-06 0.4727326 0.3165964 0.6596706 0.0000015
2020-03-05 0.5463053 0.3805217 0.7415953 0.0000279
2020-03-04 0.5386441 0.3772597 0.7283146 0.0000139
2020-03-03 0.5172237 0.3622571 0.6993515 0.0000035
2020-03-02 0.5394236 0.3835829 0.7214164 0.0000069
2020-03-01 0.5479166 0.3931944 0.7279092 0.0000075
2020-02-29 0.5448740 0.3926973 0.7215835 0.0000048
2020-02-28 0.5444863 0.3940474 0.7188713 0.0000037
2020-02-27 0.5715212 0.4184253 0.7481155 0.0000117
2020-02-26 0.5997843 0.4437237 0.7789979 0.0000380
2020-02-25 0.6163969 0.4589480 0.7967083 0.0000715
2020-02-24 0.6208293 0.4636650 0.8005782 0.0000790
2020-02-23 0.6246406 0.4678987 0.8036777 0.0000847
2020-02-22 0.6974584 0.5322343 0.8846761 0.0013028
2020-02-21 0.7220469 0.5548407 0.9109390 0.0027690
2020-02-20 0.6782044 0.5175414 0.8602537 0.0005624
2020-02-19 0.7138513 0.5497525 0.8990552 0.0018808
2020-02-18 0.7374980 0.5715508 0.9242741 0.0038472
2020-02-17 0.8139355 0.6402119 1.0081972 0.0297775
2020-02-16 0.8327314 0.6582396 1.0274282 0.0441325
2020-02-15 0.8689292 0.6920972 1.0655754 0.0890217
2020-02-14 0.8184281 0.6489626 1.0072555 0.0293323
2020-02-13 0.8373469 0.6679007 1.0256601 0.0434126
2020-02-12 0.7952909 0.6325185 0.9764194 0.0141718
2020-02-11 0.7267413 0.5735328 0.8978117 0.0013721
2020-02-10 0.7636324 0.6082290 0.9364491 0.0045523
2020-02-09 0.7823226 0.6266084 0.9550568 0.0077094
2020-02-08 0.7668519 0.6142170 0.9361702 0.0043254
2020-02-07 0.7364170 0.5882237 0.9010080 0.0013171
2020-02-06 0.8024414 0.6484543 0.9725870 0.0122599
2020-02-05 0.7673090 0.6177894 0.9327888 0.0037094
2020-02-04 0.7516754 0.6044358 0.9147234 0.0020042
2020-02-03 0.7303789 0.5857852 0.8906820 0.0008313
2020-02-02 0.7614226 0.6138141 0.9246967 0.0027800
2020-02-01 0.7367696 0.5916865 0.8975217 0.0010674
2020-01-31 0.8049660 0.6527732 0.9728672 0.0122207
2020-01-30 0.7912470 0.6401660 0.9580934 0.0080130
2020-01-29 0.8780561 0.7181629 1.0537794 0.0816197
2020-01-28 0.9235710 0.7590630 1.1039733 0.1903366
2020-01-27 0.9442937 0.7775285 1.1270199 0.2598527
2020-01-26 0.9404380 0.7736443 1.1232705 0.2466208
2020-01-25 0.9292605 0.7630195 1.1116403 0.2097802
2020-01-24 1.0140032 0.8393173 1.2049575 0.5477514
2020-01-23 1.0150069 0.8394383 1.2069989 0.5516606
2020-01-22 1.0783271 0.8961952 1.2770563 0.7869020
2020-01-21 1.1078428 0.9221586 1.3103060 0.8634051
2020-01-20 1.1019689 0.9158439 1.3050552 0.8483601
2020-01-19 1.1136222 0.9255289 1.3188561 0.8733116
2020-01-18 1.1522156 0.9598264 1.3619176 0.9362082
2020-01-17 1.1072761 0.9180419 1.3139790 0.8570055
2020-01-16 1.0971470 0.9081376 1.3037587 0.8316921
2020-01-15 1.0945640 0.9052343 1.3016046 0.8242803
2020-01-14 1.1472821 0.9527484 1.3596192 0.9269012
2020-01-13 1.1626930 0.9663116 1.3769704 0.9452430
2020-01-12 1.1604017 0.9636435 1.3751670 0.9421265
2020-01-11 1.1696775 0.9713465 1.3861595 0.9511886
2020-01-10 1.1136690 0.9194480 1.3262232 0.8649457
2020-01-09 1.1072108 0.9124984 1.3204723 0.8491802
2020-01-08 1.1705265 0.9688758 1.3909568 0.9490354
2020-01-07 1.1735721 0.9705761 1.3955572 0.9510410
2020-01-06 1.1627806 0.9599946 1.3847081 0.9389698
2020-01-05 1.1062436 0.9083411 1.3233587 0.8424350
2020-01-04 1.0855989 0.8896745 1.3007296 0.7897799
2020-01-03 1.0925330 0.8962260 1.3079901 0.8089476
2020-01-02 1.0985792 0.9020478 1.3141900 0.8249127
2020-01-01 1.0850663 0.8901009 1.2990508 0.7895188
2019-12-31 1.0624425 0.8698409 1.2740179 0.7206704
2019-12-30 1.0500580 0.8588434 1.2602037 0.6786068
2019-12-29 1.0967083 0.9013609 1.3109298 0.8216029
2019-12-28 1.1017734 0.9063658 1.3159716 0.8347232
2019-12-27 1.0757814 0.8833284 1.2869179 0.7646489
2019-12-26 1.0398199 0.8513194 1.2468903 0.6431651
2019-12-25 0.9270108 0.7500071 1.1224851 0.2170634
2019-12-24 0.9238872 0.7474799 1.1187029 0.2072777
2019-12-23 0.9036105 0.7293303 1.0962820 0.1518523
2019-12-22 0.9730548 0.7917163 1.1728128 0.3791695
2019-12-21 0.9762767 0.7943377 1.1766960 0.3919149
2019-12-20 1.0001975 0.8155415 1.2034156 0.4876271
2019-12-19 0.9952200 0.8106230 1.1984695 0.4675800
2019-12-18 1.0298702 0.8414786 1.2370074 0.6048490
2019-12-17 0.9752747 0.7917751 1.1776120 0.3887827
2019-12-16 0.9601625 0.7777347 1.1615223 0.3318014
2019-12-15 1.0052163 0.8178841 1.2115766 0.5074305
2019-12-14 0.9999877 0.8127407 1.2063550 0.4865855
2019-12-13 1.0346039 0.8435959 1.2448127 0.6211602
2019-12-12 1.0783312 0.8828493 1.2930707 0.7685927
2019-12-11 1.0591851 0.8654310 1.2722183 0.7081441
2019-12-10 1.0785151 0.8829998 1.2932912 0.7691138
2019-12-09 1.0956003 0.8987422 1.3116623 0.8165511
2019-12-08 1.0199666 0.8307796 1.2282700 0.5654503
2019-12-07 1.0346833 0.8445421 1.2438404 0.6221494
2019-12-06 1.0395466 0.8493849 1.2486299 0.6406469
2019-12-05 1.0360093 0.8464947 1.2443812 0.6277360
2019-12-04 0.9656136 0.7830476 1.1670230 0.3518236
2019-12-03 1.0481049 0.8572459 1.2578597 0.6718527
2019-12-02 1.0545521 0.8625191 1.2655971 0.6938602
2019-12-01 0.9828948 0.7970615 1.1879087 0.4190913
2019-11-30 1.0240920 0.8332421 1.2343273 0.5807122
2019-11-29 1.0149493 0.8239849 1.2255178 0.5449098
2019-11-28 1.0260346 0.8329845 1.2389030 0.5869066
2019-11-27 1.0569820 0.8600028 1.2739693 0.6969372
2019-11-26 1.0220149 0.8278353 1.2363460 0.5708343
2019-11-25 1.0261608 0.8311936 1.2413614 0.5862235
2019-11-24 1.0482230 0.8509981 1.2656948 0.6659613
2019-11-23 1.0778216 0.8779034 1.2979405 0.7612989
2019-11-22 1.0731359 0.8740868 1.2922978 0.7478552
2019-11-21 1.1412459 0.9361861 1.3663095 0.9050763
2019-11-20 1.1133989 0.9115598 1.3351218 0.8540156
2019-11-19 1.0228108 0.8303673 1.2350104 0.5748359
2019-11-18 1.0469430 0.8527522 1.2607556 0.6643021
2019-11-17 1.0702601 0.8744800 1.2855208 0.7427476
2019-11-16 1.0113706 0.8219921 1.2200870 0.5313824
2019-11-15 1.0045943 0.8164847 1.2119122 0.5048076
2019-11-14 0.9692109 0.7850639 1.1724682 0.3661913
2019-11-13 0.9268971 0.7472099 1.1256544 0.2200577
2019-11-12 0.9191318 0.7400276 1.1173540 0.1974998
2019-11-11 0.9169600 0.7373441 1.1158604 0.1923218
2019-11-10 1.0146527 0.8237441 1.2251597 0.5437688
2019-11-09 0.9757194 0.7865676 1.1849458 0.3930321
2019-11-08 1.0509542 0.8512763 1.2713544 0.6732032
2019-11-07 1.0803790 0.8740911 1.3081933 0.7610030
2019-11-06 1.0914235 0.8798414 1.3254607 0.7858305
2019-11-05 1.2517916 1.0196048 1.5074395 0.9838945
2019-11-04 1.2158429 0.9825248 1.4736441 0.9640814
2019-11-03 1.2918743 1.0464223 1.5627988 0.9911492
2019-11-02 1.3521573 1.0965085 1.6341927 0.9974015
2019-11-01 1.4655297 1.1949643 1.7632931 0.9998379
2019-10-31 1.4584744 1.1853760 1.7594595 0.9997660
2019-10-30 1.5325344 1.2495987 1.8439117 0.9999672
2019-10-29 1.5848126 1.2949068 1.9035650 0.9999925
2019-10-28 1.6748475 1.3752241 2.0035587 0.9999996
2019-10-27 1.5864685 1.2949270 1.9071668 0.9999920
2019-10-26 1.5664306 1.2772369 1.8846948 0.9999856
2019-10-25 1.4640534 1.1858879 1.7710863 0.9997465
2019-10-24 1.3301171 1.0667928 1.6220502 0.9941038
2019-10-23 1.3336811 1.0710555 1.6246703 0.9947053
2019-10-22 1.1613210 0.9179760 1.4328436 0.8944472
2019-10-21 1.1425832 0.9017088 1.4115404 0.8655943
2019-10-20 1.0975734 0.8618312 1.3613846 0.7732515
2019-10-19 1.0693763 0.8367211 1.3301384 0.6996346
2019-10-18 1.0413953 0.8118188 1.2991246 0.6168030
2019-10-17 0.9973200 0.7729093 1.2498977 0.4750009
2019-10-16 1.0110056 0.7850854 1.2650599 0.5197879
2019-10-15 0.9491096 0.7309300 1.1953496 0.3216761
2019-10-14 0.8873154 0.6771151 1.1254960 0.1616972
2019-10-13 0.9447105 0.7275422 1.1898092 0.3082377
2019-10-12 0.9295239 0.7142717 1.1726933 0.2646805
2019-10-11 0.9891121 0.7665483 1.2396111 0.4480955
2019-10-10 1.0047253 0.7802085 1.2572015 0.4993582
2019-10-09 1.0053469 0.7806912 1.2579792 0.5013884
2019-10-08 1.0502909 0.8202859 1.3082896 0.6444433
2019-10-07 1.0813088 0.8475735 1.3430756 0.7323832
2019-10-06 1.0105407 0.7847244 1.2644782 0.5182823
2019-10-05 0.9871284 0.7634450 1.2391129 0.4417725
2019-10-04 0.9371078 0.7184752 1.1843387 0.2880168
2019-10-03 1.0433985 0.8102398 1.3055928 0.6206863
2019-10-02 1.0793374 0.8397890 1.3484867 0.7210042
2019-10-01 1.1195094 0.8727125 1.3965707 0.8124196
2019-09-30 1.1781464 0.9218270 1.4654315 0.9056252
2019-09-29 1.1028975 0.8529809 1.3844345 0.7708117
2019-09-28 1.1893496 0.9271564 1.4836953 0.9146046
2019-09-27 1.1328135 0.8761179 1.4219870 0.8292019
2019-09-26 1.1867640 0.9233732 1.4827017 0.9102330
2019-09-25 1.1615518 0.9019904 1.4534366 0.8777741
2019-09-24 1.1602891 0.9027742 1.4496250 0.8778809
2019-09-23 1.1009055 0.8531866 1.3797169 0.7683479
2019-09-22 1.1022661 0.8576288 1.3771330 0.7750028
2019-09-21 1.1465619 0.9002977 1.4221479 0.8667399
2019-09-20 1.0666940 0.8330969 1.3287219 0.6909176
2019-09-19 0.9767938 0.7570017 1.2241731 0.4076467
2019-09-18 0.9202272 0.7102119 1.1570310 0.2355348
2019-09-17 0.8936405 0.6896929 1.1236027 0.1672988
2019-09-16 0.8004548 0.6108314 1.0153196 0.0334251
2019-09-15 0.7885519 0.6031797 0.9983829 0.0242104
2019-09-14 0.7375998 0.5614952 0.9373575 0.0061244
2019-09-13 0.6754644 0.5102385 0.8635096 0.0007254
2019-09-12 0.6151753 0.4608085 0.7914995 0.0000497
2019-09-11 0.5904112 0.4422585 0.7596374 0.0000108
2019-09-10 0.6079548 0.4604591 0.7756294 0.0000175
2019-09-09 0.6320017 0.4845521 0.7987386 0.0000387
2019-09-08 0.6131557 0.4711657 0.7735611 0.0000099
2019-09-07 0.5947358 0.4580190 0.7490360 0.0000022
2019-09-06 0.6040188 0.4690442 0.7558019 0.0000024
2019-09-05 0.5700979 0.4418181 0.7144789 0.0000002
2019-09-04 0.5722705 0.4461129 0.7138986 0.0000001
2019-09-03 0.5675257 0.4440539 0.7059140 0.0000000
2019-09-02 0.5721503 0.4500325 0.7087052 0.0000000
2019-09-01 0.5560047 0.4373330 0.6887061 0.0000000
2019-08-31 0.5572974 0.4398104 0.6884818 0.0000000
2019-08-30 0.5684290 0.4507289 0.6995768 0.0000000
2019-08-29 0.5899019 0.4705289 0.7225666 0.0000000
2019-08-28 0.6086093 0.4874711 0.7429882 0.0000002
2019-08-27 0.6254340 0.5022748 0.7618943 0.0000007
2019-08-26 0.6547101 0.5277888 0.7951016 0.0000053
2019-08-25 0.7399434 0.6033354 0.8902836 0.0006091
2019-08-24 0.7797698 0.6377745 0.9358233 0.0035615
2019-08-23 0.8451597 0.6952643 1.0094689 0.0318182
2019-08-22 0.9360365 0.7760673 1.1107730 0.2229018
2019-08-21 0.9808999 0.8152237 1.1616739 0.4033898
2019-08-20 1.0088844 0.8391378 1.1940344 0.5272618
2019-08-19 1.0776704 0.9003908 1.2706447 0.7918763
2019-08-18 1.1481735 0.9633215 1.3490096 0.9389690
2019-08-17 1.1863744 0.9966999 1.3923256 0.9727775
2019-08-16 1.2946306 1.0944598 1.5113637 0.9985770
2019-08-15 1.3406302 1.1353294 1.5627413 0.9996712
2019-08-14 1.4165737 1.2043030 1.6458203 0.9999802
2019-08-13 1.3837615 1.1738434 1.6106929 0.9999266
2019-08-12 1.3119177 1.1084147 1.5323183 0.9990992
2019-08-11 1.2040313 1.0108637 1.4138384 0.9811979
2019-08-10 1.1609916 0.9734158 1.3648496 0.9518712
2019-08-09 1.0905083 0.9111168 1.2857814 0.8275128
2019-08-08 1.0387789 0.8659831 1.2270600 0.6540862
2019-08-07 0.9902779 0.8236619 1.1720132 0.4447709
2019-08-06 0.9842137 0.8198763 1.1633395 0.4173212
2019-08-05 0.9486385 0.7890284 1.1227322 0.2669181
2019-08-04 0.9221585 0.7664039 1.0921068 0.1733737
2019-08-03 0.9110710 0.7577817 1.0782703 0.1393694
2019-08-02 0.8206800 0.6769598 0.9780285 0.0134637
2019-08-01 0.7688142 0.6312764 0.9197042 0.0018554
2019-07-31 0.6983623 0.5688275 0.8409858 0.0000545
2019-07-30 0.6787925 0.5522927 0.8181414 0.0000150
2019-07-29 0.6946433 0.5675739 0.8343565 0.0000334
2019-07-28 0.7647144 0.6318983 0.9100107 0.0011270
2019-07-27 0.7442402 0.6139064 0.8869330 0.0004076
2019-07-26 0.7913288 0.6571507 0.9377866 0.0032686
2019-07-25 0.8015290 0.6666704 0.9486252 0.0048378
2019-07-24 0.7945511 0.6603496 0.9409821 0.0036628
2019-07-23 0.8415098 0.7030792 0.9921957 0.0199629
2019-07-22 0.8455075 0.7064193 0.9969092 0.0228968
2019-07-21 0.8713122 0.7295315 1.0254962 0.0490065
2019-07-20 0.8596936 0.7182718 1.0136356 0.0361584
2019-07-19 0.9226590 0.7751466 1.0828299 0.1619060
2019-07-18 0.9404250 0.7905902 1.1030693 0.2236891
2019-07-17 1.0066133 0.8504688 1.1757232 0.5208624
2019-07-16 1.0531004 0.8923403 1.2269786 0.7274989
2019-07-15 1.0786786 0.9150419 1.2555776 0.8162382
2019-07-14 1.0609642 0.8979730 1.2373477 0.7550128
2019-07-13 1.1194079 0.9511555 1.3011605 0.9131558
2019-07-12 1.1325928 0.9628760 1.3158823 0.9340247
2019-07-11 1.1128003 0.9445101 1.2946841 0.8997876
2019-07-10 1.1447469 0.9742405 1.3288004 0.9500803
2019-07-09 1.1129661 0.9456819 1.2936727 0.9016002
2019-07-08 1.1171080 0.9507182 1.2967176 0.9113032
2019-07-07 1.0666605 0.9058445 1.2404230 0.7795289
2019-07-06 1.0192488 0.8641443 1.1869668 0.5824206
2019-07-05 0.9691066 0.8202270 1.1302188 0.3396188
2019-07-04 0.9362435 0.7924125 1.0918923 0.1996462
2019-07-03 0.8780256 0.7413818 1.0260560 0.0511432
2019-07-02 0.8335375 0.7029582 0.9750765 0.0112852
2019-07-01 0.8195963 0.6924616 0.9572875 0.0058380
2019-06-30 0.7857311 0.6634507 0.9182011 0.0010968
2019-06-29 0.7293560 0.6135476 0.8550280 0.0000361
2019-06-28 0.6626779 0.5540636 0.7808695 0.0000002
2019-06-27 0.6502728 0.5440779 0.7657945 0.0000000
2019-06-26 0.6687112 0.5621676 0.7843632 0.0000002
2019-06-25 0.6595751 0.5548467 0.7732235 0.0000001
2019-06-24 0.6431155 0.5406500 0.7543408 0.0000000
2019-06-23 0.6333006 0.5323989 0.7428285 0.0000000
2019-06-22 0.6431412 0.5420523 0.7527454 0.0000000
2019-06-21 0.6361250 0.5361390 0.7445335 0.0000000
2019-06-20 0.6741551 0.5715653 0.7850877 0.0000001
2019-06-19 0.7119962 0.6068874 0.8253758 0.0000019
2019-06-18 0.7623085 0.6538435 0.8789749 0.0000736
2019-06-17 0.7901578 0.6801078 0.9083395 0.0004050
2019-06-16 0.7577761 0.6505400 0.8730733 0.0000473
2019-06-15 0.7977250 0.6880452 0.9153973 0.0005726
2019-06-14 0.8412929 0.7290018 0.9615098 0.0054499
2019-06-13 0.8589877 0.7459491 0.9798845 0.0117070
2019-06-12 0.8505259 0.7386007 0.9702316 0.0078293
2019-06-11 0.8560644 0.7444455 0.9753662 0.0096388
2019-06-10 0.8778978 0.7657163 0.9976360 0.0229330
2019-06-09 0.8714708 0.7608364 0.9895057 0.0168072
2019-06-08 0.8654994 0.7565624 0.9816566 0.0121652
2019-06-07 0.8421574 0.7361584 0.9551819 0.0036121
2019-06-06 0.8145032 0.7117661 0.9240652 0.0006512
2019-06-05 0.7869478 0.6874736 0.8930454 0.0000832
2019-06-04 0.7528270 0.6570470 0.8550288 0.0000041
2019-06-03 0.7586054 0.6639251 0.8595046 0.0000049
2019-06-02 0.7907686 0.6955907 0.8919606 0.0000531
2019-06-01 0.7484804 0.6575040 0.8452660 0.0000009
2019-05-31 0.6991493 0.6127881 0.7911207 0.0000000
2019-05-30 0.6848218 0.6007454 0.7743244 0.0000000
2019-05-29 0.6424229 0.5622432 0.7278691 0.0000000
2019-05-28 0.6430198 0.5637541 0.7274236 0.0000000
2019-05-27 0.6311102 0.5533126 0.7139507 0.0000000
2019-05-26 0.6545638 0.5757797 0.7383262 0.0000000
2019-05-25 0.6752083 0.5954736 0.7598801 0.0000000
2019-05-24 0.6871211 0.6068745 0.7722780 0.0000000
2019-05-23 0.7232007 0.6409643 0.8103286 0.0000000
2019-05-22 0.7211330 0.6391317 0.8080117 0.0000000
2019-05-21 0.7380994 0.6551678 0.8259016 0.0000000
2019-05-20 0.7335429 0.6508432 0.8211169 0.0000000
2019-05-19 0.7826737 0.6970185 0.8732209 0.0000040
2019-05-18 0.8057643 0.7185546 0.8978967 0.0000370
2019-05-17 0.8515631 0.7614879 0.9466006 0.0013737
2019-05-16 0.9354306 0.8405124 1.0353535 0.0989414
2019-05-15 1.0221768 0.9224839 1.1269114 0.6595440
2019-05-14 1.0618835 0.9599844 1.1688485 0.8785374
2019-05-13 1.0339656 0.9333778 1.1396268 0.7374778
2019-05-12 1.0079780 0.9087850 1.1122348 0.5544474
2019-05-11 0.9877335 0.8897703 1.0907390 0.3991646
2019-05-10 1.0117319 0.9128063 1.1156736 0.5833408
2019-05-09 1.0330643 0.9333166 1.1378034 0.7335861
2019-05-08 1.0469855 0.9467618 1.1521790 0.8141882
2019-05-07 1.0348512 0.9354240 1.1392278 0.7457096
2019-05-06 1.0402425 0.9407857 1.1446248 0.7785190
2019-05-05 1.0232022 0.9248943 1.1264039 0.6692786
2019-05-04 1.0145319 0.9170569 1.1168590 0.6062811
2019-05-03 0.9912257 0.8953985 1.0918543 0.4241188
2019-05-02 0.9390874 0.8464340 1.0364836 0.1061937
2019-05-01 0.8894259 0.7999109 0.9836201 0.0111566
2019-04-30 0.8476587 0.7609284 0.9390023 0.0007159
2019-04-29 0.8740975 0.7865971 0.9661460 0.0041031
2019-04-28 0.9025132 0.8141541 0.9953587 0.0199939
2019-04-27 0.9075912 0.8195195 1.0000931 0.0251110
2019-04-26 0.8927494 0.8058996 0.9839797 0.0110489
2019-04-25 0.8631454 0.7782050 0.9524219 0.0016077
2019-04-24 0.8506616 0.7667326 0.9388869 0.0006064
2019-04-23 0.8567957 0.7729125 0.9449380 0.0009247
2019-04-22 0.8520117 0.7687033 0.9395443 0.0006128
2019-04-21 0.8367769 0.7545375 0.9232088 0.0001670
2019-04-20 0.8402945 0.7581318 0.9266234 0.0002164
2019-04-19 0.8605167 0.7775324 0.9476480 0.0010663
2019-04-18 0.8605743 0.7776872 0.9475983 0.0010576
2019-04-17 0.8560297 0.7733756 0.9428198 0.0007460
2019-04-16 0.8947647 0.8101398 0.9835330 0.0105119
2019-04-15 0.9238894 0.8377335 1.0142017 0.0482422
2019-04-14 0.9468598 0.8594682 1.0384220 0.1232896
2019-04-13 0.9537830 0.8659515 1.0457962 0.1568950
2019-04-12 0.9438345 0.8564241 1.0354314 0.1108270
2019-04-11 0.9588585 0.8707584 1.0511432 0.1847707
2019-04-10 0.9705417 0.8819636 1.0632976 0.2590750
2019-04-09 0.9796547 0.8907366 1.0727425 0.3260397
2019-04-08 0.9737465 0.8851701 1.0664861 0.2815473
2019-04-07 0.9948991 0.9053793 1.0885787 0.4504232
2019-04-06 1.0164279 0.9259408 1.1110730 0.6308676
2019-04-05 1.0133339 0.9230269 1.1077952 0.6058638
2019-04-04 1.0304539 0.9394824 1.1255691 0.7364456
2019-04-03 1.0336326 0.9427567 1.1286301 0.7585540
2019-04-02 0.9898370 0.9013430 1.0824155 0.4071944
2019-04-01 0.9686797 0.8817063 1.0596853 0.2425960
2019-03-31 0.9280546 0.8436345 1.0164425 0.0540216
2019-03-30 0.9112780 0.8283840 0.9980680 0.0226456
2019-03-29 0.9022039 0.8204945 0.9877360 0.0128916
2019-03-28 0.8916137 0.8111267 0.9758534 0.0062691
2019-03-27 0.8998529 0.8196592 0.9837357 0.0100595
2019-03-26 0.8803817 0.8016733 0.9627229 0.0025233
2019-03-25 0.8683974 0.7907604 0.9496177 0.0009314
2019-03-24 0.8725792 0.7952238 0.9534735 0.0012259
2019-03-23 0.8457874 0.7700912 0.9249812 0.0001067
2019-03-22 0.8180429 0.7440365 0.8955077 0.0000051
2019-03-21 0.7911532 0.7187865 0.8669410 0.0000002
2019-03-20 0.7992208 0.7268383 0.8749897 0.0000004
2019-03-19 0.7954655 0.7235799 0.8707066 0.0000002
2019-03-18 0.7980896 0.7263557 0.8731529 0.0000003
2019-03-17 0.8054293 0.7335746 0.8805932 0.0000007
2019-03-16 0.8452856 0.7717955 0.9220699 0.0000648
2019-03-15 0.8686362 0.7942296 0.9463267 0.0005920
2019-03-14 0.8874443 0.8123012 0.9658640 0.0027682
2019-03-13 0.8840804 0.8091506 0.9622807 0.0021123
2019-03-12 0.8997400 0.8242008 0.9785438 0.0067268
2019-03-11 0.9101918 0.8342714 0.9893712 0.0134434
2019-03-10 0.9156770 0.8395799 0.9950280 0.0188369
2019-03-09 0.9148112 0.8387861 0.9940872 0.0178256
2019-03-08 0.9318105 0.8550736 1.0117976 0.0465204
2019-03-07 0.9580187 0.8801685 1.0391207 0.1504614
2019-03-06 0.9552903 0.8775253 1.0363096 0.1354700
2019-03-05 0.9814051 0.9025485 1.0635172 0.3213760
2019-03-04 0.9840623 0.9051274 1.0662501 0.3447554
2019-03-03 1.0139907 0.9339438 1.0972817 0.6268609
2019-03-02 0.9799083 0.9014405 1.0616040 0.3077573
2019-03-01 0.9725162 0.8946403 1.0535955 0.2465925
2019-02-28 0.9547469 0.8779664 1.0346999 0.1296345
2019-02-27 0.9542282 0.8778817 1.0337124 0.1256611
2019-02-26 0.9516652 0.8758453 1.0305875 0.1116363
2019-02-25 0.9575589 0.8819043 1.0362823 0.1410449
2019-02-24 0.9301623 0.8559931 1.0073691 0.0376542
2019-02-23 0.9399793 0.8657751 1.0171909 0.0623482
2019-02-22 0.9207966 0.8477432 0.9968261 0.0207234
2019-02-21 0.9118625 0.8395783 0.9870890 0.0111860
2019-02-20 0.8974387 0.8261789 0.9716042 0.0036923
2019-02-19 0.8766967 0.8067317 0.9495297 0.0005747
2019-02-18 0.8641113 0.7950922 0.9359620 0.0001515
2019-02-17 0.8305859 0.7633266 0.9006444 0.0000026
2019-02-16 0.8299372 0.7630212 0.8996256 0.0000022
2019-02-15 0.8367830 0.7698332 0.9064844 0.0000049
2019-02-14 0.8509175 0.7835767 0.9209946 0.0000267
2019-02-13 0.8963934 0.8273773 0.9681348 0.0026035
2019-02-12 0.8935561 0.8247584 0.9650704 0.0020133
2019-02-11 0.8852631 0.8168885 0.9563465 0.0009411
2019-02-10 0.8769407 0.8089934 0.9475888 0.0004149
2019-02-09 0.8671491 0.7996912 0.9372995 0.0001475
2019-02-08 0.8873339 0.8191759 0.9581767 0.0010894
2019-02-07 0.8938424 0.8255047 0.9648589 0.0019371
2019-02-06 0.9126960 0.8436622 0.9844059 0.0088755
2019-02-05 0.9374489 0.8674401 1.0101359 0.0451168
2019-02-04 0.9477046 0.8771901 1.0209063 0.0787377
2019-02-03 0.9799103 0.9079441 1.0545822 0.2925165
2019-02-02 1.0096369 0.9361672 1.0858425 0.5950456
2019-02-01 1.0287403 0.9539853 1.1062750 0.7685454
2019-01-31 1.0411579 0.9651808 1.1199725 0.8516459
2019-01-30 1.0517773 0.9744777 1.1319851 0.9027552
2019-01-29 1.0938870 1.0139492 1.1768146 0.9896870
2019-01-28 1.1348383 1.0521998 1.2205562 0.9994431
2019-01-27 1.1734984 1.0881646 1.2620076 0.9999802
2019-01-26 1.2297549 1.1410117 1.3217741 0.9999999
2019-01-25 1.2622046 1.1708673 1.3569235 1.0000000
2019-01-24 1.2979467 1.2038268 1.3955588 1.0000000
2019-01-23 1.3333561 1.2363978 1.4339223 1.0000000
2019-01-22 1.4071342 1.3058699 1.5121262 1.0000000
2019-01-21 1.5095838 1.4029756 1.6200405 1.0000000
2019-01-20 1.5345784 1.4254818 1.6476404 1.0000000
2019-01-19 1.5335828 1.4230668 1.6481728 1.0000000
2019-01-18 1.5610254 1.4482208 1.6780002 1.0000000
2019-01-17 1.5604255 1.4465556 1.6785481 1.0000000
2019-01-16 1.5036117 1.3909881 1.6205571 1.0000000
2019-01-15 1.4750959 1.3628401 1.5917309 1.0000000
2019-01-14 1.4423058 1.3307304 1.5583089 1.0000000
2019-01-13 1.4274601 1.3159655 1.5434236 1.0000000
2019-01-12 1.4058829 1.2948073 1.5214642 1.0000000
2019-01-11 1.3713182 1.2612260 1.4859512 1.0000000
2019-01-10 1.3440014 1.2345935 1.4579877 1.0000000
2019-01-09 1.3155349 1.2068048 1.4288878 1.0000000
2019-01-08 1.2645587 1.1573817 1.3764138 0.9999998
2019-01-07 1.1979347 1.0929369 1.3076792 0.9999326
2019-01-06 1.1907285 1.0851688 1.3011176 0.9998689
2019-01-05 1.2112960 1.1038004 1.3237148 0.9999676
2019-01-04 1.1990480 1.0910426 1.3120777 0.9999043
2019-01-03 1.1833901 1.0750247 1.2968843 0.9996725
2019-01-02 1.2135647 1.1026835 1.3296815 0.9999544
2019-01-01 1.2139826 1.1019365 1.3313758 0.9999475
2018-12-31 1.2415497 1.1269593 1.3616087 0.9999920
2018-12-30 1.2403194 1.1243863 1.3618590 0.9999888
2018-12-29 1.2635835 1.1449222 1.3880117 0.9999976
2018-12-28 1.3167290 1.1936538 1.4457560 1.0000000
2018-12-27 1.3856266 1.2571541 1.5202597 1.0000000
2018-12-26 1.4328552 1.2998513 1.5722446 1.0000000
2018-12-25 1.4774359 1.3399779 1.6215091 1.0000000
2018-12-24 1.4834530 1.3434845 1.6302576 1.0000000
2018-12-23 1.4674117 1.3262508 1.6156085 1.0000000
2018-12-22 1.4500389 1.3080752 1.5992107 1.0000000
2018-12-21 1.4555614 1.3119511 1.6065230 1.0000000
2018-12-20 1.4866418 1.3403445 1.6404077 1.0000000
2018-12-19 1.4377223 1.2930248 1.5899835 1.0000000
2018-12-18 1.4564446 1.3100606 1.6104697 1.0000000
2018-12-17 1.4642295 1.3168642 1.6192979 1.0000000
2018-12-16 1.4614278 1.3137443 1.6168644 1.0000000
2018-12-15 1.4156486 1.2699862 1.5691049 1.0000000
2018-12-14 1.3767841 1.2328642 1.5285343 1.0000000
2018-12-13 1.2712010 1.1327455 1.4175240 0.9999705
2018-12-12 1.2450929 1.1077260 1.3903727 0.9998589
2018-12-11 1.1704945 1.0369322 1.3120306 0.9944172
2018-12-10 1.1489307 1.0159605 1.2899595 0.9864174
2018-12-09 1.1525370 1.0184254 1.2948233 0.9876316
2018-12-08 1.1608461 1.0250263 1.3049931 0.9904570
2018-12-07 1.1425541 1.0063516 1.2872751 0.9801388
2018-12-06 1.1594417 1.0204290 1.3072022 0.9882774
2018-12-05 1.1891932 1.0463378 1.3410568 0.9958724
2018-12-04 1.2161219 1.0694627 1.3720675 0.9984746
2018-12-03 1.2474490 1.0967175 1.4077447 0.9995655
2018-12-02 1.2552176 1.1020398 1.4182181 0.9996444
2018-12-01 1.2681830 1.1124866 1.4339279 0.9997769
2018-11-30 1.3193164 1.1589559 1.4899164 0.9999807
2018-11-29 1.3567824 1.1928400 1.5311273 0.9999972
2018-11-28 1.3591775 1.1939720 1.5349319 0.9999972
2018-11-27 1.3546844 1.1887035 1.5313544 0.9999958
2018-11-26 1.3895687 1.2203334 1.5696332 0.9999994
2018-11-25 1.4018539 1.2307816 1.5838963 0.9999996
2018-11-24 1.3964198 1.2246318 1.5793191 0.9999994
2018-11-23 1.4021044 1.2289119 1.5865478 0.9999995
2018-11-22 1.3469615 1.1763320 1.5289783 0.9999880
2018-11-21 1.3017684 1.1331881 1.4818680 0.9998798
2018-11-20 1.2179539 1.0542060 1.3933499 0.9961177
2018-11-19 1.1756828 1.0140372 1.3491075 0.9839055
2018-11-18 1.1959952 1.0319740 1.3719360 0.9911316
2018-11-17 1.2181191 1.0514854 1.3968293 0.9955458
2018-11-16 1.2101066 1.0428740 1.3895927 0.9938397
2018-11-15 1.1899818 1.0229302 1.3694825 0.9877454
2018-11-14 1.2030905 1.0337482 1.3850890 0.9913730
2018-11-13 1.2432643 1.0696528 1.4297402 0.9975788
2018-11-12 1.2072423 1.0349989 1.3925482 0.9915779
2018-11-11 1.2168269 1.0427373 1.4041584 0.9934498
2018-11-10 1.2383945 1.0617064 1.4284821 0.9965907
2018-11-09 1.2088053 1.0334243 1.3977298 0.9909526
2018-11-08 1.1571559 0.9848012 1.3432045 0.9621185
2018-11-07 1.2166084 1.0385709 1.4085231 0.9922385
2018-11-06 1.2525161 1.0702747 1.4488743 0.9973370
2018-11-05 1.2572073 1.0726944 1.4561475 0.9974900
2018-11-04 1.2673715 1.0797220 1.4698342 0.9979773
2018-11-03 1.2663285 1.0759932 1.4719358 0.9975951
2018-11-02 1.3268730 1.1286443 1.5409027 0.9996360
2018-11-01 1.3685204 1.1634503 1.5899905 0.9999006
2018-10-31 1.3979281 1.1865176 1.6264151 0.9999562
2018-10-30 1.3476643 1.1358386 1.5773334 0.9996249
2018-10-29 1.3543051 1.1370284 1.5902979 0.9995960
2018-10-28 1.4987990 1.2640019 1.7533027 0.9999969
2018-10-27 1.5500124 1.3047350 1.8161032 0.9999993
2018-10-26 1.6514454 1.3909987 1.9339116 1.0000000
2018-10-25 1.7954232 1.5160081 2.0981218 1.0000000
2018-10-24 1.8928139 1.5982423 2.2119321 1.0000000
2018-10-23 1.8766991 1.5766572 2.2024887 1.0000000
2018-10-22 1.9284848 1.6180053 2.2658114 1.0000000
2018-10-21 1.8965415 1.5834038 2.2375134 1.0000000
2018-10-20 1.9882190 1.6623457 2.3428269 1.0000000
2018-10-19 1.9226517 1.5979115 2.2769850 1.0000000
2018-10-18 1.8828638 1.5571796 2.2390139 1.0000000
2018-10-17 1.9069676 1.5743974 2.2709302 1.0000000
2018-10-16 1.9325105 1.5926621 2.3047343 1.0000000
2018-10-15 1.9572001 1.6100761 2.3377035 1.0000000
2018-10-14 1.7596210 1.4269341 2.1266458 0.9999998
2018-10-13 1.7104191 1.3788392 2.0771894 0.9999986
2018-10-12 1.6500656 1.3216349 2.0143945 0.9999904
2018-10-11 1.5801490 1.2567394 1.9400299 0.9999310
2018-10-10 1.4258762 1.1176593 1.7710571 0.9976143
2018-10-09 1.4451422 1.1327608 1.7949871 0.9982725
2018-10-08 1.3268019 1.0261485 1.6654949 0.9842988
2018-10-07 1.4540048 1.1355898 1.8111737 0.9982958
2018-10-06 1.4231957 1.1051672 1.7808287 0.9966056
2018-10-05 1.4150452 1.0943959 1.7762641 0.9956553
2018-10-04 1.4953288 1.1611814 1.8710881 0.9989218
2018-10-03 1.3769792 1.0532800 1.7433887 0.9900514
2018-10-02 1.3700229 1.0429249 1.7410542 0.9878784
2018-10-01 1.3924535 1.0573483 1.7729801 0.9904774
2018-09-30 1.2772916 0.9510275 1.6509312 0.9486313
2018-09-29 1.4287800 1.0733435 1.8342705 0.9924165
2018-09-28 1.4759942 1.1023431 1.9033394 0.9951864
2018-09-27 1.6414916 1.2295898 2.1119828 0.9994912
2018-09-26 1.7545723 1.3063943 2.2678283 0.9998544
2018-09-25 2.1407606 1.6127139 2.7424423 0.9999997
2018-09-24 2.5572754 1.9368555 3.2625746 1.0000000
2018-09-23 2.6348529 1.9556386 3.4137470 1.0000000
2018-09-22 2.8396108 2.0712316 3.7273329 1.0000000
2018-09-21 3.7028671 2.7302019 4.8214444 1.0000000
2018-09-20 4.1543829 3.0065475 5.4849253 1.0000000
2018-09-19 5.8622747 4.3073790 7.6530816 1.0000000
2018-09-18 8.0364779 5.9254644 10.4641701 1.0000000
2018-09-17 10.8492240 7.9429955 14.2015259 1.0000000
2018-09-16 15.8057340 11.5288108 20.7469388 1.0000000
2018-09-15 23.2724992 16.7727704 30.8200641 1.0000000

Lúc số ca bắt đầu liên tục thì Rt rất cao và đến tháng 11/2018 thì Rt mới giảm gần bằng 1. Tuy nhiên, đến cuối tháng 01/2019 (thời gian ghi nhận số ca cao nhất) thì Rt mới bằng 1 và tiếp tục giảm sau đó.

Sử dụng bảng phân độ Rt, giai đoạn Rt của Sởi năm 2018-2019 diễn ra như sau (CDC, 2024):

  • Từ 09/2018 đến tháng 01/2019: số ca nhiễm đang tăng.

  • Từ 02/2019 đến tháng 08/2019: số ca nhiễm đang giảm, có những khoảng thời gian chuyển sang giai đoạn có thể giảm hoặc ổn định.

  • Từ 09/2019 đến 01/2020: số ca nhiễm có thể tăng và đến 10/2019 thì số ca nhiễm đang tăng, sau đó ổn định dần.

  • Từ tháng 01/2020 - 03/2020: số ca nhiễm đang giảm.

2.2 Phân bố nhóm tuổi theo tuần